Denmark, Sweden & Finland: 2007 barley gained 20 Euros per ton

In spite of above low moisture scenario the fields are in perfect condition in Sweden and Denmark, according to Scandinavian Malting Barley market report of Abildstrom & Co Aps, May 3. The whole region has rather low temperatures now, no wind and extremely high dew/condensation in the morning. All reasons to believe root-system progressing satisfactorily and evaporation very low. Finland had one warm summer-day, thereafter cooling off and blessed with snow only last week-end. Spring sowing of malting barley expected commence in volume as from Saturday/Sunday when weather is looking comfortable and seed beds after rain inviting with prime conditions. Sowing as from week 18 is quite normal for major part of Finland.

MARKET

Crop 2007 barley gained well above 20 € per ton. The rally as we see it was driven by several bullish factors arising simultaneously:

1) Brewers entered malt market for volumes.
2) Maltsters must cover barley right away and entered barley market.
3) Unfortunately they went bang-on into a bad French/German weather forecast.
4) French and German collectors “overreacted” and commenced some wash-outs at scale-up levels, probably and mainly because a huge volume of malting barley has been sold on pre- and frame contracts. Crop 2007 is needed in tons and quality to bridge 2006 deficits.
5) At certain stages only offers of Danish and English were available, which lifted the level here as well.

With some scattered rains in the news in more European places, we feel market more relaxed today which everyone considering next step. At some time last week the 2007 market level drew 2008 with it and caused an almost parallel 20 € increase for that crop year. Causes:

a) Understand maltsters stopped offering malt;
b) Both sellers and buyers of barley hesitating and watching weather maps;
c) Crop 2008 rally ending with sellers but practically no buyers, who still in principle bearish that far ahead.


PRICES

Basis 3000 ts, max 14.5% moisture, FOB. 2. ½ May

Crop 2006
Dan. Prestige/Power/Sebastian max 12.5 protein : € 238,00 (nominal)

Crop 2007 basis 1.½ October (14.5 moist/max 11.5 pro)

Dan/Swed Prestige/Power/Class/Tipple/Sebastian (to our knowledge last paid): € 210,00

Crop 2008 basis 1.½ October (14.5 moist/max 11.5 pro)

Dan/Swed Prestige/Power/Class/Henley/Tipple around/above: € 196.00

Feed barley is our daily competitor to malting and with new numbers of pigs, this is likely to be a never ending factor in Denmark:

Feb 2003 12.7 mil
Feb 2004 13.2 mil
Feb 2005 13.2 mil
Feb 2006 12.7 mil
Feb 2007 13.8 mil

Together with our cattle eating abt. 1.3 mln ts Danish spring barley. Or more than half our production. + of course some imported and quite some winter barley totally abt 3.3 miln ts.

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